Gold · 1975 to 2026 · 13,331 trading days
Every time gold spiked, and what happened next
When gold jumps hard in three days it feels like the last train out. It almost never is. Whichever size of jump you look at, the market gave that price back to you, or better, about 96% of the time, and usually within days.
See all of it, free
Every spike charted, with the dates, the numbers, and how long each one took to come back. Free โ you just need an account.
Join the Owners ClubA spike is any jump of that size or more across three consecutive trading days, close to close, with signals kept at least 21 trading days apart so one long run is not counted twice. For each one, the following 126 trading days (about six months) are searched for a close at or below the spike close. Prices are XAU/USD spot. The hollow marker and the teal dot are different events and often sit a long way apart: the hollow marker is the first day price traded back at the spike level, which is frequently the very next day, while the teal dot is the single cheapest close anywhere in the following six months, which can be months later.
Source: XAU/USD daily spot, 1975-01-02 to 2026-08-07. Pre-1990 spot data is thinner and less reliable than modern data; the result holds without those years. Each set is the full population over the period, not a selection. Past behaviour is not a forecast, and none of this is financial advice.
